Will solid-state batteries be the terminator of the era of ICE cars?

By Jeff Lee 2023-03-20

The battery pack is the most expensive component of EVs, and it is also a key technology point for EVs to meet the driving needs of ICE car owners. In recent years, battery technology has developed in various ways, but most are based on lithium-ion batteries. Solid-state batteries are a revolutionary and transformative technology developed from this and stemmed various types(polymers, oxides, and sulfides), showing its enormous hidden business opportunities, and driving global researchers to rack their brains to develop solutions with higher energy density. Regardless of where future developments go, consumers will inevitably choose a suitable car for themselves in either lithium-ion or solid-state battery models within the EV age.

We all know that the main pain points of transitioning from ICE cars to EVs are range anxiety, charging convenience, and high vehicle prices. Starting three years ago, Tesla ramped up production capacity, leading to an explosion in EV demands in the Chinese market, and BYD became a dominant player. The phenomenon prompted significant global automotive markets actively deploy charging facilities and a recent price war on electric cars, all showing that the EV wave is surging and almost no major auto market can remain aloof from it. The obstacles of charging convenience and vehicle prices have been slowly decreasing, and the main remaining problem is range anxiety.

Lithium-ion batteries are currently the mainstream development for global EVs. Whether it's NCM, LFP, or other derivative types, all of which adhere to the basic design framework of lithium-ion batteries. However, it is widely believed that solid-state batteries will take over and continue to push EVs’ overall performance and safety to new heights. Currently, whether it's battery manufacturers in China, the United States, Japan, or South Korea, or even global carmakers' in-house R&D programs, solid-state batteries have been seen as the decisive key point for the future era of EVs. However, it may take at least six to seven years or more to commercialize solid-state battery technology and reduce costs to a reasonable level, based on the current state of research and development.

Ignoring the fact that solid-state battery commercialization is still far away, although they have technological advantages such as high energy density and safety, their slower charging and discharging speeds compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries (solid electrolytes and the positive &negative electrodes have smaller contact areas compared to liquid electrolytes) will be a technical obstacle to their future popularity. Therefore, the technology of "semi-solid-state batteries" (which contain a small amount of liquid electrolyte) emerged two to three years ago. The advantages of semi-solid-state batteries compared to full solid-state batteries are:

  • Manufacturing technology and production equipment investment are similar to today's lithium-ion batteries, with much lower investment costs.
  • Can achieve commercialization at least three years earlier.
  • Can mitigate slow charging and discharging speeds.

Of course, the energy density of semi-solid-state batteries may not be as high as that of full solid-state batteries, but it is still much higher than today’s traditional lithium-ion batteries. Therefore, compared with the endurance of ICE cars, it is already close enough. As for the development of full solid-state batteries, in my opinion, it is an immense challenge like Level 4/5 autonomous driving technology. The huge investment and long development cycle will make it difficult to take advantage of the peak growth period of the EV market around 2026-2028. Therefore, from a commercial perspective, it will be hugely disadvantageous. Thus, we can see that the direction of global battery development will be evenly divided into two forces and will compete technologically before their commercialization in 2025. Only then will we know who the "successor" to lithium-ion batteries is.