Are solid-state batteries the catalyst for BEVs to sweep over the car market?

At the moment that competition of lithium-ion batteries is in the ascendant, the battlefield of solid-state batteries ahead is already overwhelming. Carmakers begin to take part in and to form alliances, in the fear of winning lithium-ion batteries competition but losing the next one. But apparently, there are still years to the mass production of solid-state batteries, and we might have to further wait the cost reduction until 2030 as it will gain enough competitiveness by then. From this schedule, 2025 will be the time that solid-state batteries start mass production and force lithium-ion batteries suppliers to cut their price, which becomes the critical turning point of BEVs’ price low enough to impact ICE cars’ sales. The effect of this catalyst will continue until at least 2030, which means it will last until the day BEVs start to dominate the global car market.

In the past two years, while EV trend sweeping over the global market, the battery technology achievement is more than booming, so we must give an in-depth view of how this component that accounted for 40% cost of BEVs 3 years ago starts to break through the bottleneck of technology and cost, and then drive the automotive market into the BEV era. 

Lithium-ion batteries are currently the mainstream application in the market, and it could be divided into NMC (Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide) and LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate). The former is high cost, high energy density, low stability; And the latter has opposite characteristic, plus longer lifetime. These are differentiated by the materials for positive electrode, which is a crucial part for battery performance.

Due to weak points for each kind of lithium-ion battery, engineers rack their brains to develop advanced and enhanced version. On the other hand, the improvement of materials for negative electrodes, the integration and simplification for battery module of battery pack in the chassis design, both are the reason why the R&D process of batteries is complicated and costly.

Despite this, the performance of lithium-ion batteries has an innate limit. On the other hand, the solid-state batteries (SSB), which has been developed for so many years but its technology and cost still could not meet mass production standard, its energy density is supposed to be the groundbreaking two times more than the lithium-ion battery plus higher stability and safety from its design theory. Toyota started new energy research for automotive since 2012, so it still possessed the most patents in solid-state battery technology field.However, they didn’t keep investing enough resource to maintain its advantage.

The year of 2017 is the start for traditional carmaker, such as BMW, Honda, Hyundai, Nissan, to focus on development of solid-state batteries. But the real tipping point is 2018, as SSB startups raise or complete huge amount of fundraising:

- Quantum Scape: Though it’s founded in 2010, their clear expansion plan is from 2018 as Volkswagen invested in them. Since then, Volkswagen invested in them multiple times, plus Bill Gates personal investment, to make their market value shot up. But the biggest challenge for them is when will the production begin?

- Solid Power: Also founded in 2011, but they didn’t start R&D works until 2018, as Hyundai and Samsung invested in them. BMW and Ford invested in them subsequently, meaning now they have many major carmakers’ endorsement.

- Solid Energy Systems SES: It was just founded last year, then Hyundai and GM invested in them. GM will also build joint-venture battery factory with SES, and plans to start production and delivery since 2025.

- Factorial Energy: This company obtained investment from Hyundai, Mercedes-Benz and Stellantis last year successively, which become the solid-state battery company that is supported by most brands. At the same time, they invite heavy hitters to be their consultants including Dieter Zetsche, ex-CEO of Mercedes-Benz, and Mark Fields, ex-CEO of Ford, and aim to start mass production from 2026.

- QingTao Energy: This Chinese company obtained investment from groups including SAIC, BAIC, GAC, making it the leader of solid-state batteries technology in China.

Other than these world-famous SSB company, there are Foxconn and ProLogium in Taiwan that went all out to develop solid-state batteries. ProLogium even gained favor from FAW and Nio, so hopefully they will start mass production and deliver in the future.

In addition, many universities around the world devoted R&D resources to solid-state batteries, hoping to breakthrough technological obstacles. Harvard university announced they have developed a solid-state battery that has 10,000 charge/discharge cycle times, which means the lifetime of batteries can be compared with the engines in traditional ICE cars.