A Brief Discussion on Next-Generation Battery Progress

劉宸志 Kenny Liu 2024-03-18

According to media reports from the other side of the Taiwan Strait, during the peak of the Spring Festival, extensive freezing rain covered an area of over 300,000 square kilometers in east-central Guizhou, north-central Hunan, east-central Hubei, central Anhui, and southeastern Henan. This extreme weather event, the most intense since 2009, had significant consequences. Highways became treacherous, causing vehicles to lose control due to icy roads, resulting in large-scale accidents and injuries. Moreover, people and vehicles found themselves stranded on icy road surfaces. Electric vehicles (EVs) were particularly affected, with their liquid lithium-ion batteries experiencing a drastic reduction in performance due to the freezing weather. As a consequence, the original range of these EVs, typically around 400 to 500 kilometers, was greatly compromised. Many social media users, often referred to as "EV Man," shared their experiences during this challenging situation. In dynamic Instagram Stories, they described a scenario where they were stuck in a 20-kilometer highway traffic jam for 5 hours. The service areas were also congested with cars. EV owners faced a dilemma: they couldn't risk using air conditioning in their vehicles because it would significantly impact their liquid lithium-ion batteries. Therefore, they had to turn off the engine and endure the cold. Some EV roofs were even covered in snow, and owners had been stranded for more than 20 hours, seeking fresh air outside their vehicles. This situation amplifies the Achilles' heel of liquid lithium-ion batteries operating in low-temperature conditions. Naturally, questions have arisen in the market about whether new energy vehicles (NEVs) can truly replace traditional gasoline/diesel-powered cars.

In the Japanese market, the Toyota Group announced its financial results for the period from April to December 2023 on February 6. The results not only set a record high for profits, but also forecasted that profits for the fiscal year 2023, which ends in March this year, will reach 4.5 trillion yen. If achieved, this milestone would make Toyota the first company in Japan to reap profits exceeding 4 trillion yen. Additionally, in mid-October 2023, Toyota made a significant announcement: a collaboration with Idemitsu Kosan, a major energy company in Japan. Their joint goal is to develop mass production technology for solid electrolytes, a crucial step toward realizing the mass production of all-solid-state batteries for pure EVs. The ambition is to have these advanced batteries ready for the market by 2027 to 2028. Catalyzed by these developments, the stock market value of Toyota not only hit a record high in Japan, making it Japan's largest enterprise, but it also outperformed South Korea's Samsung to become Asia's second-largest enterprise (after Taiwan's TSMC) on February 14. It is evident that, alongside the company's activities, breakthroughs in battery technology play a pivotal role in the automotive industry, where EVs continue to reshape the vista.

All-solid-state batteries are touted to achieve a remarkable range of 1,200 kilometers after just a 10-minute charge. Their robust thermal stability ensures that low-temperature weather won't compromise battery efficiency, making them suitable for users in middle and high latitudes with colder climates. However, the primary technical challenge lies in the durability of these batteries. After undergoing dozens to hundreds of charging cycles, the electrodes degrade due to repetitive expansion and contraction, eventually detaching from the solid-state electrolyte. Fortunately, Toyota has identified a promising material to address this bottleneck in all-solid-state battery technology. This exciting development, without a doubt, opens up new possibilities for investors to envision the stock's potential.

Currently, liquid lithium-ion batteries used in EVs primarily consist of two types: ternary lithium-ion batteries (nickel-manganese-cobalt, NMC) batteries or nickel-cobalt-aluminum, NCA batteries) and lithium-iron-phosphate batteries (LFP). Vehicle manufacturers and major battery makers are focused not only on reducing battery costs but also on enhancing energy density to increase range. Furthermore, efforts are underway to improve battery efficiency in low-temperature environments and shorten recharging times. These efforts involve optimizing battery management and control systems by refining electrolyte materials and power supply. In an article published in February 2023, A Brief Discussion on EV Ranges in Cold Temperatures, I delved into solutions for addressing low-temperature operating conditions in the EV industry. Some of the approaches explored include quaternary lithium-ion batteries, sodium-ion batteries, hydrogen fuel cells, hydrogen fuel engines, and wireless charging technology. Interested readers can refer to this article for further insights. The lithium-iron-phosphate blade battery (LFP blade battery), launched by BYD in mid-2023, employs a novel approach. It utilizes a narrow and elongated blade-like structure to optimize battery volume utilization. By fitting more batteries into the limited car space, BYD aims to extend the range. This canny design, leveraging lower-cost and lower-energy-density LFP materials, serves as an alternative strategy to compete with lithium-ion batteries. The high price-to-performance ratio of blade batteries has led to their adoption by electric car manufacturers. Even Tesla's Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg in Germany procured 60 kWh BYD LFP blade batteries in May 2023. These batteries are integrated into the rear-wheel-drive version of the Model Y to augment its competitive pricing. However, whether the blade battery will become a staple in affordable EVs remains to be seen. In October 2023, the Nikkei in Japan published an article dissecting the BYD Seal. The investigation revealed that the car's blade battery employs CTB (cell-to-body) technology. "This cutting-edge technology integrates the Blade Battery seamlessly into the car's body to create a strong 'sandwich' structure that can achieve a remarkable torsional rigidity of 40,500 Nm/°, equivalent to luxury cars." (BYD official website) Occupants also receive additional protection in side crashes. However, this ingenious design poses challenges for recycling and reuse. Beyond their superior energy density and cost advantages, the difficult recyclability of blade batteries remains a concern. As the CTB technology evolves, it pays to scrutinize and assess its subsequent development for both environmental and safety considerations.

In the realm of next-generation battery development, several Taiwanese manufacturers have made significant strides. First up, ProLogium Technology. ProLogium's Guanyin plant commenced mass production of solid-state batteries in January 2024. Initially planned with a capacity of 0.5 GWh, this production will expand to a full 2 GWh based on market demand. These batteries are poised to support up to 26,000 EVs, with Mercedes-Benz among the major customers. Moreover, in May 2023, ProLogium announced its investment in a colossal 48 GWh gigafactory located in Dunkirk, France. This facility is scheduled to begin operations by the end of 2026. The French government's inclusion of ProLogium in the "France 2030" program underlines the strategic significance of this investment in France. The second noteworthy player in the next-gen battery industry is Gus Technology, which is investing in the production of lithium-titanate oxide batteries (LTO) in Zhongli. The company's facility, right after the opening in May 2023, commenced production in the second half of the same year. By mid-2024, Gus Technology aims to achieve a full capacity of 1 GWh, with its primary clientele being Japanese customers. While the energy density of LTO batteries is slightly lower, switching the negative electrode material from graphite to lithium titanate allows them to withstand over 20 times more charging cycles than standard graphite batteries. Unlike graphite lithium-ion batteries, which typically require replacement after 1,000 to 2,000 cycles, LTO batteries can endure over 20,000 cycles or more. This unprecedented durability makes them particularly well-suited for medium and large commercial vehicles, including both passenger and freight transport. Plus, their charging time is approximately three times shorter than that of graphite-based materials, making them an excellent solution for transportation companies seeking green alternatives in battery-intensive industries. For heavy-duty transportation, LTO batteries offer a compelling choice for efficient and environmentally-conscious mobility.

Based on the examples mentioned above, it appears that LTO batteries, known for their reusability and short charging times, and hydrogen fuel cells, which offer rapid refueling, will emerge as the top choices for medium and large commercial transportation vehicles in the zero carbon future. Who will be the ultimate winner? Determinants include competitive costs, proven durability, and range performance. In the passenger car market, the key priorities include reducing cost fast, achieving charging times within 10-15 minutes, and attaining an energy density of 500 Wh/kg or more. However, tackling performance challenges at high and low operating temperatures remains a complex task.

While advancements in solid-state batteries and new materials for cathodes and anodes in existing three-/four-element lithium-ion batteries show promise, I figure pinpointing the winner de facto within the next 3-5 years is still in limbo. In addition, the real-world market response to hydrogen fuel cells in passenger cars can be observed through Toyota's second-generation Mirai, which only sold 3,924 and 3,921 units globally in 2022 and 2023, respectively. These sales figures will provide valuable insights into the future mainstream adoption and opportunities amid fierce competition in the market.

*This article does not reflect the official position of this website, and the author bears sole responsibility for its content.

About the author - Kenny Liu

Graduated from Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Cheng Kung University in 1988, started his auto industry career since July 1990 after two year military service. Starting as a service engineer and a temp technician, product marketing specialist in Peugeot/ Daihatsu, marketing and dealer channel specialist in VW LCV from March 1992, then field manager in GM Taiwan from Feb. 1994, sales and service / parts head in Ford Lio-Ho from Sep. 1998 till retirement in May 2019. Kenny then started to work for JLR Taiwan as sales/service head and consultant/ lecturer. After that, he was invited to work at a Suzuki dealer of Taipei as the general manager until April 2022.