Last year (2022), Toyota sold 24,500 BEVs, only accounting for about 0.2% of the group's total sales, and the group did not make the top 20 in global EV sales. Volkswagen sold 572,200 BEVs, making up 6.9% of the group's total sales, and became the third largest EV seller in the world. Hyundai-Kia sold 371,800 BEVs, representing 5.4% of the group's total sales, and ranked fifth in EV sales globally.
If EV sales grew at a compound rate of 50% or so over the next three to five years, the number of EVs sold would reach 25 million by 2025, and the EV penetration rate would exceed 30%. Given its existing plans for the pace of EV introduction, will Toyota still be able to secure the sales crown then? There will be a lot of room for discussion. The particularly stark fact is that Japan, where the domestic auto market had been shrinking, lost out to India and fell to the world's fourth largest single auto market in 2022.
Hyundai-Kia has just announced investment tactics and strategic goals for 2030 at the groundbreaking ceremony of its new Kia plant. With an investment of 24 trillion KRW (18 billion USD) in EVs, the Group expects to own 31 BEV models and sell 1.5 million EVs in the South Korean market by 2030. Globally, Hyundai-Kia aims to realize EV sales of 3.64 million units and spares no effort to catch up with the leading Tesla and BYD to become one of the world's top three EV manufacturers by 2030. I mentioned in a previous article Happenings in the Global Automotive Industry in 2025:
"Hyundai Motor Group not only has all-round planning for EVs/ FCEVs and drones, but the Company has also achieved some success in markets other than China. Whether Hyundai has what it takes to grow into a triumvir that rivals the two powers, Toyota and Volkswagen, we will see preliminary results in 2025."
Samsung Securities, a South Korean financial services company, confidently issued an industry analysis titled "The Year of 2026 Will See New Global No. 1 Carmaker" on April 20. In the report, "Hyundai-Kia, the leader of South Korea's auto industry, is expected to become the No. 1 global player, overtaking Toyota and Volkswagen, with sales of 9.2 million units worldwide in 2026."
Hyundai-Kia has shown the world extraordinary performance in BEVs in recent years. After the triple win — World Car of the Year (WCOTY), World Electric Vehicle, and World Car Design of the Year — of the Ioniq 5 at the 2022 World Car Awards, the newly launched Ioniq 6 followed suit in 2023. What's more, the World Car Awards jurors named SangYup Lee, who has been with the Hyundai Group since 2016, as the 2023 World Car Person of the Year to recognize his significant contributions to the amazing, innovative designs for concepts and mass-produced cars, including the Ioniq 6, the redesigned second-generation Kona EV, and the N Vision 74. We can infer from the awards and actual sales performance that Hyundai's commitment to EVs over the past few years has gradually borne fruit and will continue to generate impressive sales figures for the Group in the years to come.
Volkswagen is not outshone. According to the Group's annual report published on March 14 this year, the total investment planned for the five-year period from 2023 to 2027 is 180 billion euros, of which 122 billion euros will be spent on the development of EVs (E-Auto) and the reinforcement of digitalization. The Group's target is at least one BEV out of every five vehicles sold by 2025, i.e., to increase the proportion of BEV sales to 20%. In 2021, Volkswagen announced Project Trinity, where "Trinity stands for three crucial themes: a newly developed electronics platform with state-of-the-art software, the simplification of the supply structure, and fully networked and intelligent production" (Volkswagen Newsroom), to form the basis for future BEV products. In addition, the Volkswagen Group invested in the construction of 8 MEB (Modular Electric Drive Toolkit) EV factories around the world in 2022, expected to produce more than 50 EV models by 2025 for greater market share.
As for China's BYD Auto, chairman and CEO Wang Chuanfu stated on March 29, "BYD aims to become the largest car manufacturer in China by the end of the year." In an interview with the Financial Times in mid-March, BYD's European president Michael Shu said of the Company's plans for the European market, "BYD wants to raise sales to about 800,000 models in Europe by 2030, surpassing brands such as Tesla and becoming one of the three most popular EV brands. BYD's short-term goal is to mass produce the first batch of vehicles in Europe as early as 2025 to complete the foundation of a sales volume of 800,000 units by 2030." Moreover, BYD opened its first store in Japan, BYD Auto Tomei Yokohama, this January. According to Atsuki Tofukuji, chairman and general manager of BYD Auto Japan, the Company has a schedule for the opening of 70 locations and plans to open 100 showrooms in Japan by the end of 2025. Sanjay Gopalakrishnan, senior vice president of BYD India, told Bloomberg in an interview at the Auto Expo, India in mid-January that BYD, after launching the first EV (BYD-ATTO 3) in 2022, is seeking to corner 40% of India's EV market by 2030.
Finally, let's look at Tesla. In his speech at the Investor Day on March 1, CEO Elon Musk unveiled his long-term vision, Master Plan 3. Tesla's goal is to produce 20 million EVs per annum by 2030. Judging from the current sales, the Company still has a long way to go before achieving that goal. Meanwhile, one key to Tesla's short-term goals lies in expanding production capacity by adding a sixth gigafactory (expected to be situated in Nuevo León, Mexico) sooner rather than later. Tesla is also planning to launch an electric car priced at US$25,000 to draw the attention of consumers and increase market size.
At the press conference on April 7, Sato, who took office as Toyota's new president in April, announced that Toyota would launch 10 BEV models by 2026, and that the Company expected to achieve an annual production capacity of 1.5 million EVs by 2026 to catch up with the above-mentioned rival brands. Based on a conservative estimate of 30 million EVs sold worldwide by 2026, with 85 million vehicles in the world, which auto brand do you think will be the top-selling one by the said time?
About the author - Kenny Liu
Graduated from Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Cheng Kung University in 1988, started his auto industry career since July 1990 after two year military service. Starting as a service engineer and a temp technician, product marketing specialist in Peugeot/ Daihatsu, marketing and dealer channel specialist in VW LCV from March 1992, then field manager in GM Taiwan from Feb. 1994, sales and service / parts head in Ford Lio-Ho from Sep. 1998 till retirement in May 2019. Kenny then started to work for JLR Taiwan as sales/service head and consultant/ lecturer. After that, he was invited to work at a Suzuki dealer of Taipei as the general manager until April 2022.