While the automatic transmission system is familiar to the consumer public, the manual transmission is the first transmission system that matched with the engine in the history of automobiles. The manual transmission transmits power mechanically and directly, so it suffers less mechanical energy loss than the automatic transmission, and the performance of gear shifting for acceleration is better (of course, the driver needs to have sufficient gear shifting skills), but precisely because the performance of manuals requires the driver's skills, they are popular with the general public to a limited extent. Since GM introduced mass-produced automatics before World War II, the penetration rate of A/T in the global passenger car market has gradually increased during the past few decades. The Taiwan car market has outdone its European and U.S. counterparts in the development of automatics. The main reason is that the fun of driving a manual can hardly be experienced in Taiwan, a small and densely populated country with heavy traffic. Even in Europe and the U.S., however, it has been getting more and more difficult for manuals to survive in the passenger car market in recent years. Now that the era of EVs has come, motor-driven powertrains in fact do not need multi-speed gearboxes (although some EV models still use a two-speed transmission). Manual gear shift technology does not have much substance anymore. Last year, the Volkswagen Group announced the discontinuation of manuals in Europe as of 2023, and in other major markets such as China and the U.S. by 2030. Mercedes-Benz has also announced a similar timetable. In the U.S. market, where manuals still account for more than 10%, the decisions of these leading manufacturers will inevitably change consumer orientation, and the reverberations will gradually spread across the globe. Manuals are very likely to become extinct in major global passenger car markets before 2035 (at which time point the EU bans the sale of gasoline cars).
Unlike gasoline cars, which are subject to zero-emissions regulations, manuals rise and fall as a result of market competition. Long before the rise of EVs, manuals merely claimed less than 1% of the passenger car market in Taiwan at best. The change from 30 years ago, when the driving test required driving a manual, to today, when test takers are allowed to drive their own A/T cars, shows that consumers prefer to drive in a simpler way, even if it means higher fuel costs. If we extend our train of thought from this perspective, will consumers be willing to let go of their hands and right feet and give the driver's seat to AI for a smoother, more comfortable ride when self-driving technology is mature? It may again involve consumer psychological… because having full control of the car is the only way consumers feel safe. Although switching to autonomous driving enables them to use a more advanced and convenient human-machine interface to give instructions to AI through dialogue, consumers somehow feel insecure. But still, will loaded backseat buyers automatically enjoy the fruits of technological improvements by replacing the human driver in the driver's seat with a self-driving system that is not only more skilled but also immune to fatigue? Simply put, the history of automobiles from manuals and automatics to fully autonomous driving is precisely the evolutionary process of human beings letting go of the actual driving of a vehicle. Vehicles will be de facto mobile platforms in the future. Human beings, completely freed up from driving time and energy, will be able to engage in other more productive tasks or leisure activities in the car. As for manuals, the final destination will be the automobile museum where they become exhibits to remind people of a significant piece of history.