Looking back to the top 10 best-selling cars in the world last year, the top nine were all fuel-powered, with Tesla Model 3 ranked number ten. Generally speaking, if a model sells 500,000 units a year, it has a chance of making it to the top 10. As for this year, while Tesla Model Y is expected to sell 760,000 units, it not only takes the crown as the best-selling electric car, but reaches a spot as one of the top 10 best-selling cars. How about the other EV brands this year?
When it comes to EV sales, the explosive growth of China's own brands cannot be ignored. Even if the Wuling Hongguang Mini EV is not able to place its name in the top 10 this year, it will not be far behind. BYD also has a large overall sales volume; its sales, however, are dispersed with its series of models. The sales performance of Chinese vehicle brands is not only increasing in China's domestic market, also expanding across the global market, posing a growing threat to the ranking of fuel vehicles.
On the other hand, automotive brands from Germany, Japan, the U.S. and South Korea are estimated to complete the development and production of their new EVs around 2025. With their strong distribution channels, it is no doubt that it will result in a reshuffle of the top-selling models. In addition, analyzing from a "price and volume" point of view, the B-segment models (e.g., RAV4, Model 3, Tiguan, etc.) with a price tag 30% higher than that of their fuel-fired counterparts, should be the most acceptable product for most owners when embracing electric vehicle. However, the general over-pricing as well as the lack of well-prepared charging networks are the key factors that affect EV sales. Both of these problems will be solved in 3 or 5 years as long as the cost of batteries drops to $100/KWh (which will make the EVs getting closer to the price of fuel cars) and when charging facilities become more popularized. All in all, I believe that from 2025 onward, nine out of 10 of the top 10 best-selling cars will be highly likely to be electric-driven models.
Another notable fact from last year's rankings is that six of the top 10 were Japanese car brands. Since Japanese manufacturers are lagging behind in their EV development, it will significantly impact their sales in the foreseeable future. North America as the most important market for Japanese automakers, has accelerated its path to electrification; China market with its huge EV sales opportunities, is where Japanese automakers will be given in; Europe, on the other hand, has never been a major market for the Japanese automakers; and as for India, while its huge EV sales opportunity is ready to be explored, companies like Foxconn has already prepared to build up manufacturing plants, and Maruti Suzuki, the largest local car brand, is expected to launch its own EV by 2025. However, India market situation will be quite unpredictable in the near future. Southeast Asian region, which has always been another major focus for Japanese automakers, is now in the planning of EV industry in many countries, and Chinese brands are starting their move in the area. All of the changes in these markets will be posing a serious threat to Japanese brands. The competition in the sales ranking, therefore, will become increasingly white-hot.